Class 11AAA Playoff Scenarios Heading into Final Week
The final games of the Class 11AAA regular season take place on Thursday night with playoff positions on the line. Here are the scenarios.
The South Dakota High School Activities Association has implemented the seed point system from high school basketball. Teams are awarded points based on their opponents win/loss record.
Opponent Win Percentage:
Tier 1: .750 and above: 50 points for win, 39 for loss
Tier 2: .500-.749: 47 points for win, 36 for loss
Tier 3: .250-.499: 44 points for win, 33 for loss
Tier 4: .249 and below: 41 points for win, 30 for loss.
Where this becomes difficult is that the numbers for each team changes on a week-to-week basis and adjustments have to be made going back to the first week. This week features five teams that are on the bubble of one tier to another that plays a role into final standings.
Teams on the Tier Bubble:
Sioux Falls O'Gorman - Falls to Tier 2 with a loss to Lincoln
Rapid City Stevens - Falls to Tier 4 with a loss to Rapid City Central
Watertown - Falls to Tier 4 with a loss to Brookings
Pierre - Falls to Tier 2 with a loss to Sturgis
Huron - Falls to Tier 4 with a loss to Mitchell
Everyone in Class AAA has played Rapid City Stevens. If Stevens loses, it drops everyone by three seed points, or has no impact on any of the teams standings. Watertown has played everyone but Lincoln and Roosevelt. Pierre would only hurt Washington or Aberdeen Central with a loss.
Here's what I've been able to put together. The eight teams for Class 11AAA have been set. As of today the seeding order would be:
1) Washington (7-1) 44.875
2) Roosevelt (7-1) 44.125
3) O'Gorman (6-2) 43.125
4) Brandon Valley (5-3) 42.500
5) Lincoln (5-3) 41.750
6) Aberdeen (3-5) 39.375
7) RC Stevens (2-6) 38.375
8) Watertown (2-6) 38.375
Draw a line right away between seeds five and six. Aberdeen Central cannot get a five seed, and Lincoln cannot fall any lower than a five seed.
Games this week:
Roosevelt vs. Washington
Lincoln @ O'Gorman
Brandon Valley @ Aberdeen Central
Rapid City Stevens @ Rapid City Central
Watertown @ Brookings
Playoff Scenarios (Please note that these are based on calculations that I conducted. I don't have the exact spreadsheet but followed the same format. Consider this more as a guide):
Sioux Falls Washington - WHS will either be the top seed with a win, or the 2nd seed with a loss. They cannot go lower than 2nd.
Sioux Falls Roosevelt - RHS will become the top seed with a win, or the 2nd seed with a loss. They cannot go lower than 2nd.
Sioux Falls O'Gorman - O'Gorman has the opportunity to be either the 3rd, 4th, or 5th seed. For the 3rd seed, they just have to win. It becomes messy with a loss.
1) OG Win = 3rd Seed
2) OG Loss to Lincoln + Huron Win + Watertown Win + RCS Win = 3rd Seed
3) OG Loss to Lincoln + Brandon Valley Loss + Huron Win + Watertown Win = 4th seed
4) OG Loss to Lincoln + Huron Loss + Watertown Loss + Brandon Valley Win = 5th seed (LHS would have 2nd, BV at 3rd)
Brandon Valley - Following last week's loss to Lincoln, Brandon Valley can only be a 4th or 5th seed. They cannot jump to the third spot.
1) BV Win + OG Win = 4th Seed
2) BV Win + OG Loss + RCS Loss = 4th Seed
3) BV Loss = Automatic 5th Seed
Lincoln - LHS has the most to gain this week. They could shoot all the way up to a three seed but need some help. They will either be a third, fourth, or fifth seed.
1) LHS Win + Huron Loss + RCS Win + Watertown Loss = 3rd Seed
2) LHS Win + Huron Win + Watertown Win = 4th Seed (OG/LHS/BV tied 42.333 seed points. Goes to head-to-head tiebreaker)
3) LHS Loss + BV Win = 5th Seed
4) LHS Loss + BV Win + Watertown Loss = 5th Seed
Aberdeen Central - Locked in as the 6th seed.
Rapid City Stevens - Currently situated as the 7th seed but they need Watertown to lose to secure that spot.
1) RCS Win + Watertown Loss = 7th Seed
2) RCS Win + Watertown Win + OG Win + Pierre Loss = 7th Seed
3) RCS Win + Watertown Win + OG Win + Pierre Win = 8th Seed
4) RCS Loss + Watertown Loss = 8th Seed
Watertown - Currently in 8th seed but in the battle for 7th. Lost the head-to-head meeting with Rapid City Stevens. Scenarios same as above.
Tomorrow night's game between Washington and Roosevelt can be heard on ESPN 99.1 (If Mets/Cubs series finishes tonight) or on KSOO if there is a Game 5 of the NLCS beginning at 7:00. We will have the full playoff schedule announced before the broadcast concludes.